Disappearing archosaurs – an assessment of established protected areas in the Philippines to save the Critically Endangered and endemic philippine crocodile Crocodylus mindorensis

Once distributed all over the Philippines, the endemic Philippine Crocodile Crocodylus mindorensis is threatened with extinction. Less than 140 mature individuals live in the wild. Human activities like fishing and illegal poaching, as well as land-use change and habitat conversion cause a continuing threat for the remaining populations. Therefore, designated protected areas were evaluated with species distribution models (SDMs) for improved future conservation efforts. For this purpose, the existing IUCN-reserves were analysed for climatical suitability (combining bioclimatic and remote sensing variables), wetland occurrences and the human footprint index by using MaxEnt and QGIS. Based on topical species records, our final SDM-model showed high performance and revealed the climatically most suitable areas on Luzon and Mindanao. However, only small parts of the climatically optimal area and suitable wetlands are currently covered by reserves. Case in addition, none of the species’ records is located within a protected area. The anthropogenic pressures in the reserves were diverse and varied between a low and moderate level. Most of the records are found in areas with a moderate to medium human footprint. Considering the three criteria, only ‘Northern Sierra Natural Park’, ‘Agusan Marsh Wildlife Sanctuary’ and ‘Upper Agno River Basin Resource Reserve’ revealed to be suitable conservation areas for C. mindorensis. The other reserves seemed to be unsuitable, whereas suitable areas outside protected areas are highly recommended for further surveys. Therefore, the current network of existing protected areas needs significant improvement to provide well-suited and long-term protection for C. mindorensis. More surveys are also necessary to find hidden, so far overlooked populations and verify C. mindorensis tolerance level for human footprint.