Fine-scale habitat suitability modelling of Northern red muntjac (Muntiacus vaginalis) in the Chitwan Annapurna Landscape, Nepal

Factors associated with the habitat suitability of northern red muntjac (Muntiacus vaginalis) especially outside protected areas in the human-dominated landscape are still lacking. Fine-scale environmental variables can influence the habitat suitability of the animals. This study aimed to explore the different eco-geographic fine-scale variables for the distribution of the northern red muntjac; and predict suitable habitats using the  maximum entropy (Maxent) model in the Chitwan Annapurna landscape (CHAL). The presence points of the northern red muntjac (n = 265) were collected between 2018 to 2021 using 150 transects of various lengths in four blocks. Density-based occurrence points rarify and performance-based variable selection were applied to improve the output of the model. The model was evaluated based on the area under the curve (AUC) value of operator characteristic (ROC) and analyzed on the basis of the response curve, the relative importance of variables, Jackknife test and suitability map. Results indicated the model was statistically satisfactory (mean AUC > 0.75). The distance to the nearest cropland was the most contributed variable followed by Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), distance to developed/settlement area and distance to grassland that explained suitability of Northern red muntjac. The species distribution model predicted 6.52% highly suitable and 23.77% suitable area for northern red muntjac. Therefore, this area is important for the muntjac and provides a possible alternative habitat for other wild animals outside the protected areas. Our research suggests that human dominated landscape should be prioritized in management plans for the conservation of muntjac.